3rd Quarter 2018 Real Estate Economic Report


Click here to view this past quarter’s Oregon and Southwest Washington real estate market analysis, provided by Windermere Real Estate Chief Economist Matthew Gardner. I hope this information helps you with making better-informed real estate decisions. Of course, if you have a question about this report or your specific neighborhood, please call or email me.

Posted on December 10, 2018 at 10:29 am
Sally Baker | Category: Homeowners, Mortgages, Portland Real Estate, real estate market activity

Real estate: where are we now?

Good question and does anyone really know for sure? What I can say from observation is: houses are staying on the market a little longer and there are more price reductions and fewer multiple offers. The regional RMLS stats for September in the tri-county area also indicate the market is slowing down. The inventory levels are higher than they were in 2017, and the average time a house stays on the market is longer, but it is still a seller’s market.  Even though the interest rates are still really great they are getting higher. All of this makes it a little easier if you’re trying to buy a house and in most cases, it will take longer to sell your house.

Posted on November 20, 2018 at 8:38 am
Sally Baker | Category: Homeowners, Mortgages, Portland Real Estate, real estate market activity

Yikes! It’s almost tax time!

As I’m sure you know 2017 brought us new tax laws. If there has ever been a time that you want to talk to your tax consultant preemptively it is now. Of course everyone’s tax situation is different but a couple things that affect real estate are:

  1. The final tax bill has a limit on deductible mortgage debt of $750,000 for new loans taken out after 12/14/2017.
  2. The final tax bill allows an itemized deduction of up to $10,000 for the total of state and local property taxes and income or sales taxes. The limit applies for both single and married filers.

Again, be sure talk to your tax preparer so you understand how the changes affect you!!

Posted on March 14, 2018 at 4:29 pm
Sally Baker | Category: Homeowners, Mortgages, Portland Real Estate

2018 Economic Forecast

Matthew Gardner, Windermere’s Chief Economist, recently completed his national housing forecast which details his predictions for the 2018 housing market, and here’s what he has to say:

Wondering what this means for you? Give me a call.

Posted on January 16, 2018 at 9:55 pm
Sally Baker | Category: Homeowners, Interest Rates, Mortgages, Portland Neighborhoods, Portland Real Estate, real estate market activity

Economic report

The Gardner Report  | Oregon and Southwest Washington Q3 2017

The following analysis of the Oregon and Southwest Washington real estate market is provided by Windermere Real Estate Chief Economist Matthew Gardner. We hope that this information may assist you with making better-informed real estate decisions. For further information about the housing market in your area, please don’t hesitate to contact me.

ECONOMIC OVERVIEW


The State of Oregon has added 37,400 new jobs over the past 12 months, with solid gains in Construction (+11,600), Education & Health Services (+9,000), and Trade, Transportation & Utilities (+8,000) sectors. Year-over-year, employment in Oregon has risen 2.0%.

In September, the state unemployment rate was 4.2%—up from 3.7% at the end of the second quarter but down from 4.9% in September 2016. The civilian labor force continues to grow and I fully anticipate that the state’s economy will perform well in 2018, though somewhat slower than 2017.

HOME SALES ACTIVITY


  • Third quarter home sales dropped by a very modest 1.5% when compared to the same period last year, with a total of 18,724 homes sold.
  • Sales rose the fastest in Klickitat County, which had a 34.3% increase over the third quarter of 2016. There were also noticeable sales increases in Lincoln, Polk, Klamath, Clatsop, and Hood River Counties. Home sales fell the most in Tillamook, Washington, and Wasco Counties.
  • Year-over-year sales rose in 13 counties, but dropped in the other 13.
  • The low level of available inventory continues to affect the market, causing sales to slow.
Annual Change in Home Sales

HOME PRICES


  • The average home price in the region rose 9.4% year-over-year to $368,292. This is also up 1.5% from the second quarter of 2017.
  • Skamania County led the market with the strongest annual price growth. Homes there sold for 31.4% more than a year ago.
  • All counties other than Wasco County experienced rising prices when compared to the third quarter of 2016, and a majority saw significant, double-digit increases.
  • Interest rates in the third quarter dropped by one tenth of a point from Q2, which likely allowed home price growth to rise at a faster rate than earlier in the year.
Annual Change in Home Sale Prices

DAYS ON MARKET


  • The average number of days it took to sell a home in the region dropped by 14 days compared to the third quarter of 2016, and was down 9 days from the second quarter of this year.
  • The average time it took to sell a home in the region last quarter was 67 days.
  • Only four counties saw the length of time it took to sell a home rise compared to a year ago, but I do not see this as a major issue.
  • Homes sold the fastest in Washington and Multnomah Counties, where it took an average of just 21 and 24 days, respectively, for homes to sell.
Average Days on Market

CONCLUSIONS


The speedometer reflects the state of the region’s housing market using housing inventory, price gains, home sales, interest rates, and larger economic factors. Housing markets throughout Oregon continue to benefit greatly from the healthy regional economy.

The Oregon/SW Washington housing market remains remarkably strong and, given that inventory levels are unlikely to increase as we head toward the end of the year, sellers remain in the driver’s seat. I have, therefore, moved the needle slightly more toward sellers for the third quarter.

ABOUT MATTHEW GARDNER


Matthew Gardner is the Chief Economist for Windermere Real Estate, specializing in residential market analysis, commercial/industrial market analysis, financial analysis, and land use and regional economics. He is the former Principal of Gardner Economics, and has more than 30 years of professional experience both in the U.S. and U.K.
Posted on December 6, 2017 at 11:01 pm
Sally Baker | Category: Homeowners, Mortgages, Portland Real Estate, real estate market activity

2017 economic forecast

The latest from Matthew Gardner, Windermere’s resident economist… contact me with questions!

Matthew Gardner 2017 Forecast

Posted on March 9, 2017 at 8:57 pm
Sally Baker | Category: Home Mortgage, Homeowners, Interest Rates, Mortgages, Portland Real Estate, real estate market activity

Market activity

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For complete details about our market, please CLICK HERE to see the latest Market Action Report from our Regional Multiple Listing Service.

Posted on December 19, 2016 at 11:33 am
Sally Baker | Category: Blog Roll, Home Mortgage, Homeowners, Interest Rates, Mortgages, Portland Neighborhoods, Portland Real Estate, real estate market activity

Like it or not, your credit score is a big deal.

And, as you probably know, the bigger the better! It’s surprising how much your credit score can affect your monthly mortgage payment. If you’re buying a home and have a credit score between 760 and 850 the rate you qualify for could be more than 1.5% less than if your credit score was under 640.

For example: at the higher credit score the interest could be around 4.093% and at the lower score it could be as high as 5.682%. The principal and interest payment on a loan of $300,000 at the lower interest rate would be $1,448 per month. The payment for someone with a credit score of 640 or less would probably be closer to $1,738 per month for principal and interest.

Moral of the story, know your credit score.

If you would like a little more information, click here.  

Posted on May 24, 2016 at 5:57 pm
Sally Baker | Category: Home Mortgage, Homeowners, Interest Rates, Mortgages, Portland Real Estate

Forewarned is Forearmed

I know I keep saying it but it’s true: if you haven’t refinanced your home, please investigate doing it now. Additionally, the interest rates still make buying a home, rental property or vacation getaway very appealing.

And, I believe that the right lender can vary depending on what you are trying to accomplish. There are new Federal lending laws, TRID, that were put in place in October 2015. These rules and the right lender will have a huge impact on the process of buying a home.

If you are refinancing, the timelines aren’t as critical. If you are considering any of the above, please give me a call. You want the right lender for the job. Call me if you would like a couple suggestions for a lender or if you want to find out the current value of your home.

Posted on April 19, 2016 at 3:17 pm
Sally Baker | Category: Blog Roll, Interest Rates, Mortgages, Portland Real Estate

Looking ahead…

The Federal Reserve raised short term interest rates in December of 2015. This was the first time those rates were raised since the recession! 

How will that affect home loans? Adjustable mortgages are more likely to be affected by this raise than 30-year mortgage rates. Those are not set by the Federal Reserve and are more affected by the 10-year Treasury Bond and inflation. That being said, it seems impossible that 30-year mortgage rates won’t increase in the next year but unlikely by leaps and bounds. 

Do you know someone thinking of buying this year? Sooner than later may be better based on rates, but I'm here to talk to them to answer questions or start the process. Let me know if you have someone in mind. Taking care of your loved ones and those you care about is top of mind for me.

Posted on February 13, 2016 at 6:10 pm
Sally Baker | Category: Blog Roll, Homeowners, Interest Rates, Mortgages, Portland Real Estate